Dreaming of a White Christmas? These States Offer the Best Chance

The idea of a white Christmas, with a gentle blanket of snow covering the ground, is a classic holiday dream for many. While weather is never a guarantee, historical data gives us a clear picture of which parts of the country are most likely to see snow on December 25th. If you’re wondering which states have the best odds, you’ve come to the right place.

We’ll explore the states where a white Christmas is practically a tradition, those where it’s a strong possibility, and how you can track the forecast for your own backyard.

What Officially Counts as a White Christmas?

Before diving into the list of states, it’s helpful to know what meteorologists mean when they talk about a “white Christmas.” The official definition, used by agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), is simple: there must be at least one inch of snow on the ground on the morning of December 25th.

This means it doesn’t necessarily have to be snowing on Christmas Day itself. Snow that fell days or even weeks before can still count, as long as it hasn’t melted by Christmas morning. This distinction is key, as it’s often the cold temperatures that preserve an existing snowpack, rather than a fresh Christmas snowfall, that lead to a white Christmas.

The States Most Likely to Have a White Christmas

Based on decades of climate data, some states are clear frontrunners for holiday snow. We can group them by their historical probability.

The Near Guarantees (90-100% Chance)

In certain regions of these states, a white Christmas is not just a dream; it’s the norm. If you’re looking for the absolute highest probability, these are your best bets.

  • Alaska: Unsurprisingly, most of Alaska has a near 100% historical chance of a white Christmas. Cities like Fairbanks and Anchorage are almost always covered in a deep layer of snow by late December.
  • Minnesota: Northern Minnesota, particularly in areas like International Falls and the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, consistently has snow on the ground for Christmas. The odds are extremely high across the northern half of the state.
  • Maine: Much of Maine, especially the northern and western mountain regions, boasts a very high probability. The cold climate and proximity to storm tracks make it a reliable location for holiday snow.
  • Michigan (Upper Peninsula): The Upper Peninsula of Michigan is famous for its massive snowfall, thanks to the lake-effect snow from Lake Superior. It’s one of the most reliable places in the lower 48 states for a white Christmas.
  • Idaho: The mountainous regions of Idaho, including popular spots like Sun Valley and McCall, have a very high likelihood of snow on the ground due to their high elevation and cold temperatures.

The Strong Contenders (75-90% Chance)

These states offer a very good chance of a white Christmas, especially in their northern or mountainous areas. While not a complete lock every year, the odds are strongly in your favor.

  • Wisconsin: Similar to its neighbor Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin has a high probability of seeing a white Christmas. Cities like Green Bay and Wausau often have snow.
  • North Dakota: The entire state of North Dakota has a strong historical chance. Its northern latitude and cold continental climate mean that once snow falls, it tends to stick around.
  • Vermont & New Hampshire: These New England states are classic white Christmas destinations. Their mountainous terrain and cold winters make them prime candidates for holiday snow, especially outside of the southern coastal areas.
  • Colorado: While Denver’s odds are around 40-50%, the state’s famous mountain towns like Aspen, Vail, and Breckenridge have a near-certain chance of a white Christmas due to their high elevation.
  • Wyoming: Much of Wyoming, particularly in and around the Rocky Mountains, has a very high probability. Yellowstone and Grand Teton National Parks are almost guaranteed to be snow-covered.
  • Montana: Western Montana, with its rugged mountain ranges, is a very reliable spot. The eastern plains also have a solid chance, though slightly less than the mountainous west.
  • New York: Upstate New York, including cities like Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse (famous for lake-effect snow), as well as the Adirondack and Catskill Mountains, has a very high probability.

States Where It's a Holiday Treat (25-60% Chance)

In these states, a white Christmas is more of a special occasion than a yearly expectation. The chances are significant enough to get your hopes up, but it’s far from a sure thing.

  • Pennsylvania: The northern tier and the higher elevations of the Allegheny Mountains have a decent chance, while cities like Philadelphia have a much lower probability.
  • Ohio & Indiana: The northern parts of these states, especially near the Great Lakes, have a moderate chance of a white Christmas. The odds decrease significantly as you travel south.
  • Iowa: As a classic Midwestern state, Iowa sits on the edge. The northern counties have a respectable 40-60% chance, while the southern border has lower odds.
  • Massachusetts: Outside of Boston and the coastal areas, particularly in the Berkshires in the western part of the state, the chances for a white Christmas are quite good.
  • Utah: The Salt Lake City area has about a 50⁄50 chance, but the nearby mountain resorts like Park City and Alta are virtually guaranteed to have snow.

How to Track This Year's Forecast

Historical probability is a great guide, but for any given year, the actual weather pattern is what matters. To see if your area has a chance this year, you can use these resources as December 25th gets closer:

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: In early to mid-December, they release 8-14 day outlooks for temperature and precipitation, which can give you a strong hint.
  • Local Weather Forecasts: As you get within a week of Christmas, your local National Weather Service office or trusted weather app will provide the most accurate, detailed forecast.

Ultimately, whether you’re in a snowy northern state or a sunny southern one, the spirit of the holiday remains the same. But for those dreaming of a winter wonderland, now you know exactly where to find the best chances.

Frequently Asked Questions

Has every U.S. state ever had a white Christmas? This is a tricky question. While snow has been recorded in every state at some point in history, a white Christmas (1 inch on the ground on Dec. 25th) has never occurred in some southern states like Florida. However, a freak snow event in 1989 brought a white Christmas to parts of the Florida panhandle, so it’s not entirely impossible, just exceptionally rare.

What factors influence the chance of a white Christmas? The three main factors are latitude (how far north you are), elevation (how high you are above sea level), and proximity to large bodies of water that can produce lake-effect snow, like the Great Lakes.

Where can I see the official probability map? The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains a historical probability map on their climate.gov website. You can search for “NOAA White Christmas Map” to see a detailed visualization of the chances across the entire United States.